CAISO Node Watch — draft 2026-10-12

Sources: CAISO Public Queue Report (run date 2026-10-12), CAISO Cluster 15 report (posted 2026-07-16), CAISO notice "PG&E information on POI availability for Cluster 16" (2026-01-15), OpenStreetMap substations (ODbL). All MW are net-to-grid as filed. No figure below states a cause; the CAISO files carry none.

The state of the queue in three numbers

Legacy pipeline (Cluster 14 and earlier): 261 active projects, 73,848 MW, 92% with storage, 210 already under executed IAs.
Cluster 15 today: 86 active projects, 28,449 MW (21,513 MW storage). 84 projects / 30,564 MW have withdrawn — 52% of the 59,013 MW this file records as entering the cluster. (CAISO's July 2025 briefing put the studied set at 145 projects / ~68 GW; that is a different population from the 170 requests in this file, so the two are not differenced here.)
Withdrawn 2022–2026 to date, both reports: 108,968 MW, of which 96,453 MW storage. (All-time since 2006, both reports: 413,250 MW — a number that mostly describes dead wind and solar-era projects.)

Official Cluster 16 POI statements (the layer no spreadsheet tool has)

poi_base	utility	c16_poi_status	c16_poi_note	legacy_active_mw	c15_active_mw
DRY LAKE SW STA	PGAE	AVAILABLE	New 500 kV switching station; stated as a viable POI option for C16 [2026-01-15]	0	2950
HARLAN SW STA	PGAE	AVAILABLE	New 500 kV switching station designed with future expansion capability [2026-01-15]	0	1450
BITTERWATER SW STA	PGAE	AVAILABLE	New 230 kV switching station designed with future expansion capability [2026-01-15]	0	300
TESLA	PGAE	CONDITIONAL	Conceptual layout modification enables new 230 kV terminals [2026-01-15]	1280	1000
GATES SUBSTATION	PGAE	RELIEVED	500 kV removed from Table G2-A space limitation per revised plan [2026-01-15]	2521	0

The same notice says PG&E stations exceeding 63 kA short-circuit duty are restricted but does not name them, and that the Transmission Interconnection Handbook will not reflect this "until updated, no ETA". Read the notice, not the handbook.

Top nodes by total pipeline MW (legacy + C15)

poi_base	county	utility	legacy_active_mw	c15_active_mw	operating_mw	wd_recent_mw	storage_churn	c15_survival
WINDHUB SUBSTATION	KERN	SCE	4050	550	2268	1450	0.34	0.55
RED BLUFF SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	SCE	2867	725	1620	3025	0.84	1
VINCENT SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	2070	1450	199	1950	0.53	0.54
WHIRLWIND SUBSTATION	KERN	SCE	2472	801	2120	300	0.09	1
DELANEY-COLORADO RIVER	MARICOPA	DCRT	3200	0	500	0	0	nan
TROUT CANYON SUBSTATION	CLARK	GLW	3000	0	0	1500	0.54	0
DRY LAKE SW STA	KINGS	PGAE	0	2950	0	0	0	1
MANNING	FRESNO	LSPC	0	2662	0	1782	0.67	0.6
GATES SUBSTATION	FRESNO	PGAE	2521	0	820	839	0.36	0
MOSS LANDING	MONTEREY	PGAE	2250	199	932	0	0	1
LUGO	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	500	1798	0	4953	2.16	0.29
TESLA	ALAMEDA	PGAE	1280	1000	436	2000	0.77	0.33

2025 TPD allocation cycle by node — requested vs allocated vs denied (CAISO results xlsx, posted 2026-05-04)

poi_base	county	utility	tpd25_projects	tpd25_req_mw	tpd25_alloc_mw	tpd25_unalloc_mw	tpd25_denied_mw	tpd25_denied_ppa_mw	tpd25_denied_D_mw	tpd24_fcdsa_projects
MOSS LANDING	MONTEREY	PGAE	1	1500	1500	0	0	0	0	0
GATES SUBSTATION	FRESNO	PGAE	2	1396	396	1000	1000	0	1000	2
COLORADO RIVER - PALO VERDE	LA PAZ	SCE	1	1000	0	1000	1000	1000	0	0
EAST COUNTY SUBSTATION		SDGE	1	973	0	973	973	973	0	1
COLORADO RIVER SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	SCE	3	875	0	875	875	575	300	1
LAMBIE SWITCHING STATION	SOLANO	PGAE	2	800	400	400	400	0	400	0
IMPERIAL VALLEY SUBSTATION	IMPERIAL	SDGE	3	777	0	777	777	177	600	1
TROUT CANYON SUBSTATION	CLARK	GLW	2	625	0	625	625	625	0	1
RIO HONDO SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	2	600	600	0	0	0	0	3
WHEELER RIDGE	KERN	PGAE	1	600	0	600	600	555	45	0
OTAY MESA SWITCHYARD	SAN DIEGO	SDGE	2	550	0	550	550	250	300	0
CONTRA COSTA SUBSTATION	CONTRA COSTA	PGAE	2	550	449	101	0	0	0	0
RECTOR SUBSTATION	TULARE	SCE	2	550	350	200	200	0	200	0
MOORPARK SUBSTATION	VENTURA	SCE	1	500	462	38	0	0	0	1
BEATTY	NYE	GLW	1	500	0	500	500	500	0	0

"Denied" is MW refused outright (0 %); "unalloc" is requested minus allocated, so it also carries the remainder left by partial allocations — quote that one for "what the developer did not get". A refusal is not one thing: CAISO allocates by group — A = executed PPA (or LSE own load), B = shortlisted / negotiating a PPA, C = already operating, D = no PPA, Section 8.9.2.3 path. A 0 % in group D is the expected result for an uncontracted project; a 0 % in group A or B (tpd25_denied_ppa_mw) is a contracted project that did not get deliverability, and is the number to quote. Across the 2025 file: group A: 5,574 MW requested, 3,656 denied; group B: 6,931 MW requested, 4,441 denied; group C: 570 MW requested, 470 denied; group D: 11,035 MW requested, 6,440 denied. These rows are joined through all three sheets of the public report, so a node's TPD history can include requests whose project has since withdrawn (5,505 MW requested / 450 MW allocated in the 2025 cycle across all nodes). Allocation is CAISO's decision under Appendix DD; the file states no reason and neither does this table.

Storage churn, 2022–2026 to date (nodes with >300 MW storage surviving and >300 MW storage withdrawn)

poi_base	county	utility	pipeline_storage_mw	operating_storage_mw	wd_recent_storage_mw	storage_churn
ETIWANDA SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	412	100	1850	3.61
CIELO AZUL SUBSTATION	LA PAZ	DCRT	1350	0	4000	2.96
BEATTY	NYE	GLW	500	0	1350	2.7
MIRA LOMA SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	660	0	1699	2.57
IMPERIAL VALLEY SUBSTATION	IMPERIAL	SDGE	425	550	2385	2.45
LUGO	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	2298	0	4953	2.16
GATES-MIDWAY	KINGS	PGAE	500	0	950	1.9
PITTSBURG	CONTRA COSTA	PGAE	500	0	940	1.88
RECTOR SUBSTATION	TULARE	SCE	350	0	650	1.86
SPRINGVILLE SUBSTATION	TULARE	SCE	345	0	630	1.83

Example of why the window matters — Whirlwind (Kern, SCE): all-time churn 1.32 looks like a graveyard; storage churn since 2022 is 0.09, with 2,120 MW operating and 3,273 MW in pipeline. The old number describes 2008-era wind projects, not today's batteries.

Withdrew after Phase II / Facilities Study results (public report; MW)

These developers had upgrade cost estimates in hand when they left. That is the closest thing to a cost signal in the file — it is still not a cause.

poi_base	county	utility	wd_post_phase2_mw	pipeline_mw	operating_mw
COLORADO RIVER SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	SCE	3636	2016	2259
RED BLUFF SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	SCE	3452	3592	1620
IMPERIAL VALLEY SUBSTATION	IMPERIAL	SDGE	3231	875	1347
MORRO BAY SUBSTATION	SAN LUIS OBISPO	PGAE	2906	0	0
DIABLO CANYON	SAN LUIS OBISPO	PGAE	2900	1000	0
CIELO AZUL SUBSTATION	LA PAZ	DCRT	2000	1350	0
EAST COUNTY SUBSTATION		SDGE	1980	1573	276
PISGAH SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	1650	600	0
VINCENT SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	1565	3520	199
ANTELOPE SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	1382	1617	90

Local Capacity Areas — the Resource Adequacy geography (CAISO Final 2027 Local Capacity Technical Report)

For storage, location value is RA first and energy second, and local RA needs a POI inside a Local Capacity Area. The report names only the substations that delineate each area ("X is out, Y is in"), so a node not listed here is "not encoded", never "outside every area". Nodes the report places INSIDE an area, by pipeline MW:

poi_base	county	utility	lcr_area	lcr_sub_area	legacy_active_mw	c15_active_mw	operating_mw	lcr_note
MOSS LANDING	MONTEREY	PGAE	Greater Bay Area	South Bay-Moss Landing	2250	199	932	The 2027 report lists Moss Landing as in at every tie (Los Banos / Coburn / Las Aguilas are out, Moss Landing is in); earlier LCT reports drew the 500 kV boundary differently
ANTELOPE SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	Big Creek/Ventura		1420	197	90	Antelope 230 kV is in; the Antelope 500 kV yard is out. Every queue POI at this node is 66/220/230 kV, so the node is encoded in
TRANQUILITY	FRESNO	PGAE	Greater Fresno		1575	0	0	Report p.80 states Tranquility 1 and 2 are in at AREA level only. The Panoche sub-area is the pocket behind the Panoche 230/115 kV banks and its station list does not include Tranquility, so no sub-area is claimed. Sub-area removed 2026-09-16 (was Panoche)
RIO HONDO SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	LA Basin		1000	0	0
IMPERIAL VALLEY SUBSTATION	IMPERIAL	SDGE	San Diego-Imperial Valley		875	0	1347
DEVERS SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	SCE	LA Basin		450	400	1250
MIRA LOMA SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	LA Basin		300	360	0
OTAY MESA SWITCHYARD	SAN DIEGO	SDGE	San Diego-Imperial Valley		550	0	1201
CONTRA COSTA SUBSTATION	CONTRA COSTA	PGAE	Greater Bay Area		550	0	690	Contra Costa P.P. in the report
PITTSBURG	CONTRA COSTA	PGAE	Greater Bay Area		500	0	72
LAMBIE SWITCHING STATION	SOLANO	PGAE	Greater Bay Area		400	0	0
RIO OSO SUBSTATION	SUTTER	PGAE	Sierra		0	400	0
MUSTANG SWITCHING STATION	KINGS	PGAE	Greater Fresno		300	0	450
SCHULTE	SAN JOAQUIN	PGAE	Stockton	Tesla-Bellota	220	0	0
WILSON	MERCED	PGAE	Greater Fresno	Wilson	200	0	0

Heavily queued nodes the report names as OUTSIDE an area boundary — bulk stations with no local RA value from that area:

poi_base	county	utility	lcr_status	pipeline_mw	operating_mw	lcr_note
RED BLUFF SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	SCE	outside LA Basin	3592	1620	Red Bluff is out of the LA Basin (Devers is in)
VINCENT SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	SCE	outside Big Creek/Ventura	3520	199	Vincent is out of Big Creek/Ventura and out of the LA Basin: a bulk station outside every local area named in the report
GATES SUBSTATION	FRESNO	PGAE	outside Greater Fresno	2521	820	Gates 230 kV (and the 500 kV yard) is out of Greater Fresno; only the Gates 70 kV bus is in
LUGO	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	outside LA Basin	2298	0	Lugo is out of the LA Basin (Mira Loma and Rancho Vista are in): a bulk 500 kV station outside every local area named in the report
TESLA	ALAMEDA	PGAE	outside Greater Bay Area	2280	436	Tesla is out of the Greater Bay Area and out of the Stockton (Tesla-Bellota) sub-area: a bulk station outside every local area named in the report
LOS BANOS	MERCED	PGAE	outside Greater Fresno	2230	0	Los Banos 230 kV and 500 kV are out of Greater Fresno and out of the Greater Bay Area; only the 70 kV bus is in Greater Fresno. Most queue POIs at this node are 230/500 kV (a minority are 70 kV and are inside)
MIDWAY SUBSTATION	KERN	PGAE	outside Kern	1385	0	Report p.100 lists Midway as delineating the Kern-PP SUB-AREA. Midway 230 kV and 500 kV. The report defines no Kern area boundary list
VACA-DIXON	SOLANO	PGAE	outside North Coast/North Bay	800	0
BELLOTA	SAN JOAQUIN	PGAE	outside Stockton	500	0	Report p.55: Bellota 230 kV is out, Bellota 115 kV is in; p.44: Bellota is out of Sierra. The only ACTIVE queue POI here is 230 kV (Belterra Energy Storage, 500 MW); the 115 kV POIs are all withdrawn. Encoded out on the high side, matching the Gates and Los Banos treatment. Corrected 2026-09-16 (was in)

Cluster 15 nodes with little recent wreckage (<300 MW withdrawn since 2022)

poi_base	county	utility	c15_active_mw	c15_fcds_req_mw	wd_recent_mw	legacy_active_mw	c16_poi_status
DRY LAKE SW STA	KINGS	PGAE	2950	2050	0	0	AVAILABLE
LOS BANOS - GATES #1	FRESNO	PGAE	800	800	0	0
HASSAYAMPA	MARICOPA	SDGE	700	0	0	0
LUGO-PISGAH	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	700	0	150	0
CALCITE SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	638	0	200	255
MAGUNDEN-PASTORIA	KERN	SCE	600	0	0	0
QUINTO SW STA	MERCED	PGAE	500	500	100	150
NORTH GILA - HOODOO WASH (SDGE PORTION ONLY)	YUMA	SDGE	500	0	0	0

Cluster 15 survival by node (lowest first; >500 MW requested)

poi_base	county	utility	c15_active_mw	c15_withdrawn_mw	c15_survival
TROUT CANYON SUBSTATION	CLARK	GLW	0	1500	0
MOHAVE SUBSTATION	CLARK	SCE	0	1050	0
SLOAN CANYON SWITCHING STATION	CLARK	GLW	0	550	0
MIDWAY - VINCENT	KERN	SCE	0	1150	0
BEATTY	NYE	GLW	0	1350	0
VIEJO	ORANGE	SCE	0	1000	0
LOS BANOS	MERCED	PGAE	400	1995	0.17
LUGO	SAN BERNARDINO	SCE	1798	4453	0.29

Cluster 15 withdrawals by month

withdrawn_date	count	sum
2025-04	11	4887
2025-05	14	6200
2025-11	10	2449
2025-12	27	8231
2026-06	8	3928
2026-07	14	4868

Positions to audit before publishing a map (>500 MW, approximate or missing)

poi_base	county	pipeline_mw	geo_method	geo_score
RED BLUFF SUBSTATION	RIVERSIDE	3592	ambiguous	0.5
TROUT CANYON SUBSTATION	CLARK	3000	county-centroid	0.3
MANNING	FRESNO	2662	county-centroid	0.3
VALLEY SWITCH	NYE	2000	county-centroid	0.3
TRANQUILITY	FRESNO	1575	override-approx	0.8
EAST COUNTY SUBSTATION		1573	none	0.8
HOODOO WASH SWITCHYARD	YUMA	1570	county-centroid	0.3
MIDWAY SUBSTATION	KERN	1385	ambiguous	0.5
CIELO AZUL SUBSTATION	LA PAZ	1350	none	0.53
MANNING-MIDWAY	FRESNO	1150	line-one-end	0.7
NORTH GILA - IMPERIAL VALLEY	IMPERIAL	1150	line-midpoint	1
COLORADO RIVER - PALO VERDE	LA PAZ	1000	line-one-end	0.7
ARCO	KERN	915	county-centroid	0.3
CALCITE SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	893	county-centroid	0.3
DELANEY SUBSTATION	MARICOPA	850	none	0.71
LOS BANOS - GATES #1	FRESNO	800	line-midpoint	1
HASSAYAMPA	MARICOPA	700	none	0.63
LUGO-PISGAH	SAN BERNARDINO	700	line-midpoint	1
MIRA LOMA SUBSTATION	SAN BERNARDINO	660	ambiguous	0.5
WALNUT SUBSTATION	LOS ANGELES	600	disputed	nan
TEHACHAPI CONCEPTUAL SUBSTATION #1	KERN	600	county-centroid	0.3
MAGUNDEN-PASTORIA	KERN	600	line-midpoint	1
OTAY MESA SWITCHYARD	SAN DIEGO	550	county-centroid	0.3

Caveats (say these out loud to any reader)

POI strings are free text. poi_geocode.csv shows every match, score and method. line-one-end means the marker sits at one end of a line, not the tap.
Cluster 15 "deliverability" is requested, not allocated. TPD allocation is a separate CAISO process.
Withdrawal is not failure at the node, and the files give no reason beyond "IC Request". Do not attribute causes.
Nothing here is load-side. Data-center load interconnection is a utility process with no public queue.
Availability statements are encoded only where a source names the POI. Absence of a row is not availability.

No figure on this site states a cause. CAISO files carry no withdrawal reason beyond "IC Request".

Screening tool, not engineering advice. Built from public filings by an engineer who is not a licensed PE. Verify every figure against the source filing named in its row before you rely on it for any decision. No warranty of any kind. Not affiliated with CAISO, EIA, or any utility. No engineering services are offered.